In June of 2019, the UK’s Guardian newspaper reported [1] that Tokyo might have reached what is known as “peak city.” What had Tokyo done to earn such an accolade, and what does that even mean? The honor was bestowed in recognition of Tokyo’s “flatlining population, pervasive transport, and little gentrification.” This is essentially a good thing, meaning that Tokyo has become a very liveable city, without too much outward sprawl (actually this has all but ceased), a manageable population density, excellent public transport, little crime, low unemployment and gentrification which “feels less disruptive than in similarly prosperous cities such as London and New York”. It sounds like good news (and it probably is), but can it last?
Gentrification in Tokyo
Shibuya Center Street by Toshihiro Gamo is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Of these various elements that make Tokyo so liveable, it is perhaps the last – limited gentrification – which is in danger of not lasting. For sure, Tokyo’s gentrification seems to move at a slower pace than in the likes of New York, London, Berlin, and so on, but will this always be so?
Gentrification does occur in Tokyo, as well as the surrounding cities which form its unbroken metropolitan area. For example, the largely industrial and laborer city of Kawasaki has experienced quite a bit more gentrification than the Tokyo average. This has stirred tensions in the area. This could show that such less affluent areas – once outliers and now well within Tokyo’s metropolitan area – are set to follow this trend.
Has Tokyo Stopped Growing?
Old building next to Yanaka cemetery by wombatarama is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Another issue that is very pertinent for predicting what might happen to Tokyo regarding gentrification is the fact that the city has stopped sprawling outwards. Part of the reason for this is that Tokyo has largely run out of buildable new land into which to spread. Another part of the reason is Japan’s aging population, which has meant that there is no concordant population spurt which development has to catch up with.
Yet in a city as economically dynamic as Tokyo, which currently has a rapidly growing property market that attracts a great deal of foreign interest, it’s not as if development is going to stop. Foreigners have never been more interested in Japan, in fact, and the number of foreigners living there – although still low by western standards – has never been higher. All of these factors might contribute to Tokyo gentrifying in the future, within the spaces it currently occupies.
An interesting feature of Japan, and largely a result of this model of urban development, is that property value is closely tied to the value of the land it is on, rather than the actual property. With this factor being paramount, it’s possible that development might move in the direction of creating more desirable areas through gentrification. Investment in city properties is certainly at a high.
Construction site in Tokyo by Neil Moakley is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Whatever the future, Tokyo is, for now, a city performing very nicely by the liveability standards normally applied to megapolises of its size. This might not last, but how could a city like Tokyo ever sit still?
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jun/14/has-tokyo-reached-peak-city
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